In a few trading days this week, an epic "nickel futures" air war triggered a chain reaction in the relevant supply chain.
According to the trading information of London Stock Exchange (LME), on March 7, the nickel price of LME began to fluctuate sharply, with an intraday surge of more than 90%, up to US $55000 / ton; On March 8, LUNI nickel continued to go crazy, with an increase of 110%, reaching a record high price of nearly $10.14/ton, with a cumulative increase of more than 230% in two days.
Behind the "demon nickel" war is a private enterprise in Zhejiang - Qingshan holding group (hereinafter referred to as Qingshan holding). Some media reported that due to the fact that Russian nickel was kicked out of the exchange and could not be delivered, the 200000 tons of empty nickel order issued by Castle Peak holdings may not be delivered. It is rumored that Glencore (Glen. L), one of the world's largest nickel producers, forced Qingshan on LME nickel to take a 60% stake in Indonesia's nickel mine.
Photo source: photographed by reporter Cheng Ya (information picture)
Although Glencore denied the above statement and Castle Peak Group also responded that it had been deployed to the spot delivery of restructured nickel plates, the sharp rise in nickel has also been transmitted to the domestic market recently. On March 8, among the main domestic futures contracts, Shanghai nickel 2204 sealed the daily limit to 228800 yuan / ton, an increase of 15%. According to the data of business agency, the spot price of nickel was reported at 263800 yuan / ton on March 8, up 109.63% compared with the same period last year.
The soaring price of nickel makes the battery cost of new energy vehicles rise. The Research Report of CICC said: "the price of Lun nickel has increased from 20000 US dollars / ton to 50000 US dollars / ton. The cost of nickel raw materials for 8-series new energy vehicles with a single vehicle charged with 60kwh (new energy vehicles with a single vehicle charged with 60kwh and using 811 ternary battery) has increased by about 10000 yuan." Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network said that nickel prices rose sharply, and the cost of high nickel ternary products increased the most. Compared with iron phosphate, the price difference of lithium battery core continues to widen. The price of nickel sulfate may rise to 80000 yuan / ton, and the cost of single vehicle battery may rise by about 7000 yuan.
In addition, the prices of other important raw materials for new energy vehicles also rose sharply. According to the data of business agency, on March 10, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China has reached 491000 yuan / ton. On December 28, 2020, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was only 54600 yuan / ton. This means that the price of lithium carbonate has increased eightfold in less than a year and a half.
In fact, affected by factors such as the decline of subsidies and the rise of raw material prices, automobile enterprises have successively announced to raise the price of their new energy models. So far, nearly 20 new energy vehicle enterprises have released price increases.
Recently, Tesla China's official website showed that the prices of model 3 high-performance version, model y long-range and high-performance models were increased by 10000 yuan. Meanwhile, according to Tesla's official website, the prices of model y long-range and model y high-performance models have also been raised by $1000. It is worth noting that the price increase of Tesla involves high-performance models or long-life models, and does not involve standard models using lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Source: Tesla official website
In addition to Tesla, BYD announced on January 21 that from February 1, the official guidance prices of new energy models related to dynasty.com and ocean.com will be adjusted by 1000 ~ 7000 yuan. BYD said that the price rise was mainly affected by the sharp rise in the price of raw materials and the decline of new energy vehicle purchase subsidies.
Weima automobile also announced that affected by factors such as rising parts prices, the production scheduling plan and model prices of some Weima models will be gradually adjusted from March 1. Among them, the current relevant policies of 2022 ex5-z models remain unchanged. After comprehensive subsidies, the price of 2022 ex5-zpro all-round version is 154800 yuan, and the price of lead creative edition is 163800 yuan, an increase of 3000 yuan to 4000 yuan; Nezha automobile has raised the official manufacturer's guide prices of Nezha u and Nezha V since January 1. Among them, some models of Nezha u are increased by 3000 ~ 5000 yuan, and some models of Nezha V are increased by 2000 yuan.
The starting price of the you version of the polar krypton car polar krypton 001 will be increased by 8000 yuan to 368000 yuan from January 1; Since January 11, Xiaopeng automobile has raised the selling price of its products, with an increase range of 4300 ~ 5900 yuan. Among them, the flagship car Xiaopeng P7 increased by 4300 ~ 5900 yuan, Xiaopeng g3i increased by 4800 ~ 5400 yuan, and Xiaopeng P5 increased by 4800 ~ 5400 yuan.
In addition, FAW Volkswagen, Feifan automobile, SAIC GM Wuling, GAC AIAN and other new energy vehicle enterprises all announced to raise the prices of some models.
"As the price of raw materials continues to rise, the increase of power battery cost has exceeded the pressure range of battery enterprises, and the cost pressure is huge. The shortage of some raw materials is expected to be difficult to be significantly alleviated in 2022, and battery enterprises will continue to be under pressure in the short term." Guotai Junan Securities said.
It is worth mentioning that under the pressure of raw material costs, power battery manufacturers have also begun to strengthen the control of upstream resources and accelerate the exploration of diversified technologies.
Source: Daily Economic News
As early as September 2018, Ningde Times announced to join hands with greenmead and Castle Peak holdings to build a project of producing battery grade nickel chemicals (nickel sulfate crystals) from laterite nickel ore in Indonesia.
Ningde times also holds a 20% stake in the vidabe industrial park built by Qingshan group in Indonesia. It is understood that the park has world-class laterite nickel ore resources (nickel equivalent of about 9.3 million tons). In addition, Ningde times participated in North American nickel twice in 2018 and 2019, with a shareholding ratio of 20.89%.
In addition to Ningde era, BYD and GuoXuan high tech also jointly launched MCC new material project in December 2018 with China Minmetals and Tangshan Caofeidian investment group; In October 2018, Huaqing company, a subsidiary of Huayou cobalt industry, signed a cooperation agreement with QingChuang international, IMIP, woyuan holdings and longsincere for a laterite nickel ore smelting project with an annual output of 60000 tons. In March 2021, Huayou cobalt industry said on the interactive platform that it would invest in the construction of a high nickel matte project with an annual output of 45000 tons of nickel metal in Indonesia.
"The key to enhancing the global competitiveness of the power battery industry and achieving 'stable supply and stable price' lies in strengthening the global distribution of mineral resources and upstream raw materials. If the upstream mineral resources have no ownership and the key raw materials have no pricing power, the power battery manufacturing industry will become a 'painstaking and unprofitable assembler', and it will be difficult for the new energy vehicle industry to achieve high-quality development." Xu Yanhua, Secretary General of China power battery industry innovation alliance, said.
