The country's starting point is good. It hopes to prevent and resolve systemic financial risks by regulating the real estate industry and prevent the real estate industry from becoming the "biggest 'grey rhinoceros' threatening financial security" in Guo Shuqing's mouth.
Since the implementation of the long-term mechanism for real estate, policies such as the third tier and fourth tier, restrictions on bank loan concentration and centralized land supply have been stepped up layer by layer, the credit end related to housing has been tightened, the purchasing power of residents has been overdrawn, the purchase mood has turned cold, and some have produced a run psychology and stampede effect, which has led to further reluctance of banks to lend and cooling market confidence, The real estate market has inevitably moved towards a vicious circle.
Bad news keeps coming, and good news is not without it.
In the first half of the year, due to various factors such as discount sales by real estate enterprises in order to quickly return cash, although the second half of the year experienced a cliff like decline, the sales area and sales of commercial houses in 2021 are still growing. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics: from January to November 2021, the sales area of commercial housing was 1581.31 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; The sales volume of commercial housing was 16166.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5%. According to Kerui's calculation, the sales scale of commercial housing in the whole year is expected to reach a new high, with the area and amount exceeding 1.8 billion square meters and 18 trillion yuan respectively.
The central economic work conference held from December 8 to 10 stressed the need to adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, strengthen expectation guidance, explore new development models, adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of indemnificatory housing, and support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, Implement policies to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
On December 11, Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of statistics, said that we should strengthen the basic housing security of residents, "real estate is a pillar industry, and housing is residents' consumption". This is also after many years, the high-level re mentioned that "real estate is a pillar industry", which undoubtedly injected a booster into the discouraged industry.
In a forecast for 2022 launched by Morgan Stanley in mid November 2021, Morgan Stanley believes that after a year of unprecedented austerity, China will change from "deleveraging" to "stable leverage". The policy is expected to be bright and the economy is expected to return to a growth rate of 5.5% in 2022, which is better than the current market expectation.
Looking forward to 2022, the word "stability" is overwhelming.
Despite the downward pressure of the economy, the positioning of "housing without speculation" will not change, and the determination not to use real estate as a tool and means to stimulate the economy in the short term will not change. It is expected that all departments will cooperate with each other in the future, under the guidance of policies such as "simultaneous development of rent and purchase", "implementation of urban policies to promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry", "stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations", Maintain the continuity and stability of regulatory policies.
In early December 2021, the CSRC said that it would support high-quality real estate enterprises to issue bonds, use the funds for mergers and acquisitions of enterprises in danger, support private real estate enterprises to make reasonable and normal rolling financing, and maintain smooth bond financing channels. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission also said that it will focus on meeting the mortgage needs of the first house and improved housing according to different local conditions, and reasonably issue real estate development loans and M & A loans.
In addition, the "high debt, high leverage and high turnover" development and operation mode of real estate in the past may end, the confidence of future house believers will collapse, and the existing house sales is expected to become the mainstream mode in 2022 and beyond.
However, to restore market confidence, the challenge is not small——
1、 The risk of thunderstorm and default of highly indebted real estate enterprises is still great. According to the 21st Century Business Herald statistics, 88 mainstream real estate enterprises still have 456 US dollar bonds in existence, with a total bond issuance of about US $190.665 billion. Among them, there are 33 real estate enterprises with a US dollar debt scale of more than US $2 billion and 46 real estate enterprises with a US $1 billion debt scale. A debt of US $29.73 billion will expire in the first half of 2022, including US $3.475 billion for Evergrande, US $2.205 billion for jiazhaoye, and US $1.25 billion for Greenland Group and Xincheng Holdings
2、 Both sides of supply and demand are expected to be difficult to recover in a short time. On the supply side, in 2021, private real estate developers lack access to land - mainly by central enterprises or state-owned enterprises - or lead to insufficient land area available for development in 2022. On the demand side, in order to quickly return cash, reduce leverage and reduce liabilities, many real estate enterprises reduced prices or sold houses in disguised form. The sales in the second half of 2020 and the first half of 2021 reached 20 trillion, far exceeding the scale of 16.7 trillion in normal years, resulting in serious overdraft of demand (similar to the double 11 effect).
3、 Due to the uncertain expectation of the decline in house prices, whether the real estate tax will be paid or not, and the fear of the increased risk of uncompleted residential flats of real estate enterprises, it is difficult for consumers to eliminate the mentality of holding money and watching for a time.
Therefore, it is particularly important to rebuild confidence in 2022. The good news is that according to the analysis and prediction of various research institutions, China's real estate market bottomed out and rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2021, maintained a negative value in the first half of 2022 and became positive in the second half of 2022. Morgan Stanley predicts that housing sales will decline moderately by 2% year-on-year in 2022 - a year-on-year increase of 5% in 2021, but a year-on-year decrease of 15% in the third quarter of 2021 - due to the low base in the second half of 2022, it is expected to become positive year-on-year.
In order to more vividly reflect the self-knowledge of the real estate industry in 2021, huolf selected five enterprises as the objects of review and prospect, namely Evergrande, Vanke, rongchuang, Wanda and shell.
Thunderstorm and default have become the most dazzling keywords in the real estate industry in the past few months
Evergrande: Crazy exploration on the edge of bankruptcy and reorganization
In 2021, Evergrande became the largest "grey rhinoceros" in the real estate industry.
As the world's most indebted real estate giant, Evergrande has on balance sheet liabilities of up to 195 million yuan. As of the closing on Friday, December 31, 2021, the share price of China Evergrande (03333. HK) is less than 1 / 10 of that at the beginning of 2021, and the current market value is only HK $21 billion; The market value of crazy Evergrande motor (00708. HK) was nearly HK $700 billion at the peak, but now it is only HK $38.17 billion. In just a few months, the market value has evaporated by about 95%; Evergrande property (06666. HK) is similar. In 2021, the highest share price was HK $19.74, but now it is only HK $264, corresponding to a market value of HK $28.5 billion.
On Evergrande's debt crisis, Hu olfactory successively wrote Evergrande is in danger? Evergrande refutes rumors and how long can Xu Jiayin and Evergrande last "The fate of Xu Jiayin has been locked" and "Xu Jiayin on the hot pot, Evergrande in ICU" and other articles will not be repeated here.
For Evergrande, its thunder is sounded one by one, and there are roughly several key time nodes:
On September 24, 2020, a PDF document entitled "report of Evergrande Group Co., Ltd. on soliciting support for major asset restructuring projects" spread wildly in different channels. Although Evergrande urgently refuted the rumor later, Hu sniffed the news that the document was true and reliable, and the document with strong threat laid a good foundation for Evergrande to become an "individual real estate enterprise" in the future;
In July 2021, Yixing sub branch of Guangdong Development Bank applied to Wuxi intermediate people's Court of Jiangsu for pre litigation property preservation, requesting to freeze the bank deposits of Yixing Hengyu real estate and Evergrande real estate group of RMB 132.01 million or seal up and detain other equivalent properties;
On September 9, 2021, Evergrande fortune was suspected of a thunderstorm, and some front-line employees alleged that the products could not be cashed, but the senior management did not respond or even cashed in advance. This move completely chilled the hearts of the people. The next day, Xu Jiayin said, "I can have nothing, but Evergrande wealth investors can't have nothing!" Evergrande's wealth storm has become the last straw to crush Evergrande and the key to Evergrande's residence in ICU. The subsequent series of runs and stampedes began here;
On December 6, 2021, Evergrande failed to pay the bondholders US $82 million in interest within the final grace period, which eventually led to material breach of contract.
In this process, Evergrande has become a rat crossing the street and a "individual real estate enterprise" and "case" in the mouth of relevant departments, which is caused by "poor management and blind expansion". Evergrande's eventual debt restructuring is almost inevitable.
For 2022, the core problem that Evergrande needs to solve most is undoubtedly the change and debt repayment——
1) Return to work and deliver the building. On the evening of December 26, 2021, Evergrande group held a weekly meeting on resumption of work, production and guaranteed delivery of buildings. Xu Jiayin, who has always liked bluff, said: "there are still the last five days of this month. We must make every effort to ensure the completion of the target of 39000 units to be delivered this month." Evergrande said in a press release that as of the 26th, the national project resumption rate was 91.7%, an increase of 40 percentage points compared with the "pledge meeting of guaranteed delivery" in early September 2021; 89000 people returned to work, an increase of 31% over September.
2) Get cash support. One is to sell high-quality assets to recover cash, the other is to actively seek loans. Under the current situation that the house cannot be sold and there is no blood transfusion from financial institutions, Evergrande has neither money to repay its debts nor money to ensure the resumption of work and delivery of the building.
3) The worst may also be the best result. Evergrande moves towards debt restructuring, Evergrande stays, and Xu Jiayin is out.
Rongchuang: living in the shadow of Evergrande debt crisis
When Evergrande is in crisis, sun Hongbin may be the most nervous peer leader - to some extent, Xu Jiayin and sun Hongbin are stronger gamblers.
However, unlike Xu Jiayin, sun Hongbin was one of the real estate bosses who smelled danger earlier. At the end of 2019, he suggested that real estate developers "give up their illusions". He judged that the economy should not rely too much on real estate or become a "national policy"; This round of regulation will last for a long time; It is almost impossible to increase debt in the future. But can this help rongchuang become the lucky one in this round of real estate regulation storm?
According to the first half report of 2021, rongchuang China's total assets are 1205.453 billion yuan and total liabilities are 997.122 billion yuan, with an asset liability ratio of 82.72%, a decrease of 1.24% over the end of 2020.
Sun Hongbin said at the performance communication meeting: "except us, there may be thunderstorms."
When saying this, sun Hongbin may have been drunk.
It is worth mentioning that sun Hongbin has been "drunk" for many times over the past year.
On June 22, 2020, sun Hongbin attended the signing ceremony of the investment cooperation agreement for the development project of Shaoxing yellow rice wine town. It is reported that the total investment of the project exceeded 30 billion yuan and the total construction area exceeded 1 million square meters.
In May 19, 2021, the Renhuai municipal government and the China Global winery group held a signing ceremony for the construction of the Maotai flavor Baijiu production base. In July, rongchuang Department added 900 million yuan to global fine wine group. In addition, sun Hongbin also invested 600 million yuan in liquor distributor 1919 through his Runze property, including 200 million yuan of private placement and 400 million yuan of old shares transfer.
On September 24, a help letter sent by rongchuang Shaoxing Branch to the local government spread widely on social media. The help letter said that its cash liquidity had encountered obstacles and difficulties, and begged the government to give special policy support. This opened the tip of the iceberg of rongchuang's liquidity crisis. Among them, the yellow rice wine town project mentioned above has a serious revenue and expenditure gap. At present, the yellow rice wine town has invested 7.7 billion. Since the opening, due to the impact of the bleak and depressed market situation, the recovered funds have only been more than 200 million.
According to the statistics of 21st Century Business Herald, rongchuang China has recovered more than 20 billion yuan through project disposal, capital operation and other means in the past two months, including:
Transfer the equity of the two projects in Hangzhou to the partner Binjiang, and return the capital of RMB 1.673 billion;
6.08 billion yuan of stock placement financing;
Sun Hongbin's interest free loan to the company was US $450 million;
Transfer the business management business to rongchuang service at a price of 1.8 billion yuan;
Recently, three projects in Shanghai and Hangzhou were successfully sold, and the total transaction price is expected to be 2.68 billion yuan;
Meanwhile, the shell invested in the early stage has now become the ATM of rongchuang. According to statistics, rongchuang China has sold about 45.352 million shell American depositary shares from June 1, 2021 to December 7, 2021, with a total return capital of about US $1084 million (about 6.89 billion yuan).
However, rongchuang's crazy return of cash in such a short period of time has caused the market to worry about its capital chain and real debt scale.
According to the interim financial report of rongchuang in 2021, its current liabilities totaled 754.96 billion yuan, an increase of about 71.04 billion yuan over 683.92 billion yuan at the end of 2020, mainly due to the increase of various payables.
Previously, rongchuang changed from "three red to one red", reducing its short-term debt by more than 50 billion, while its accounts payable increased by more than 80 billion.
Therefore, some analysts believe that rongchuang not only owes money to suppliers, but also pays short debts.
In addition, a recent research report issued by UBS pointed out that rongchuang off balance sheet debt is about 200 billion yuan. As of November 30, 2021, rongchuang China has about 25 billion yuan of domestic and foreign bonds that will expire before the end of 2022, including two private placement bonds with a total amount of US $845 million and about 10.9 billion yuan of bonds that will enter the resale period in 2022.
Although from the perspective of liquidity, the cash and cash equivalents in rongchuang's account are 101.099 billion yuan, which can barely cover 90.962 billion yuan of short-term debt due within one year, with nearly trillion current liabilities and 200 billion off balance sheet liabilities, sun Hongbin's mood may not be easier than Xu Jiayin.
I wonder if sun Hongbin is drowning his worries with wine at this time.
For rongchuang and sun Hongbin, the core problems that need to be solved most in 2022 are: paying off the debt with peace of mind, selling down-to-earth, selling all the unimportant assets that should be sold, and also selling the fracture, so as to avoid the storm like Evergrande. Sun Hongbin should have rich experience in this regard. Think about how Wang Jianlin broke his wrists and sold various cultural and tourism projects to sun Hongbin when Wanda broke out of liquidity crisis in 2017.
Wanda: the face lost by Wang Jianlin has been recovered
Many people think that the reason why Evergrande has the current situation is that Xu Jiayin is not willing to sell anything. Without the courage of Wang Jianlin, when he wants to sell, the assets in his hand are worthless.
Therefore, under the articles related to Evergrande crisis, Wang Jianlin became the object of praise——
Or Wang Jianlin has a long-term vision and has long been divorced from real estate;
Boss Wang is the luckiest. When everyone has a problem, he has a problem. When everyone has a problem, his problem has been solved;
In some ways, Xu Jiayin is not as strong as Wang Jianlin. Wanda was also in crisis. Look at the strong men and broken wrists
You see, good and bad are set off by peers. In those years when he was not the richest man, Wang Jianlin has earned back the face he lost. Therefore, when the leaders of real estate enterprises scratched their heads in order to make money to repay their debts, Wang Jianlin announced that Wanda business management would be listed.
On October 21, 2021, the HKEx disclosed the prospectus of Zhuhai Wanda Business Management Group Co., Ltd. Wang Jianlin has introduced a series of war investments to Zhuhai Wanda business management, with a total valuation of 180 billion yuan, and Wang Jianlin's shareholding is about 100 billion yuan.
As early as 2018, Wanda business management introduced war investments such as Tencent, Suning, JD and rongchuang, and exchanged RMB 34 billion for about 14% shares. At that time, Wanda business management was valued at RMB 242.9 billion.
On December 23, 2014, Wanda Commerce (03699. HK) was listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange