The shortage of global chip is likely to continue until 2023

According to foreign media reports, Glenn O'Donnell, vice president of research director of Forrester, a consulting company, believes that the shortage of semiconductors may continue until 2023. "Because demand will remain high and supply will continue to be limited, we expect this shortage to continue until 2022 to 2023," he wrote in a blog

Now, chips are needed for everything from Playstation 5S game consoles and toothbrushes to washing machines and alarm clocks. But the supply of chips is insufficient, which is a multifaceted problem, and there is no sign that it is slowing down, so that some call the current crisis "chip ddon".

O'Donnell predicts that the demand for personal computers will ease slightly in the coming years, but will not improve much. Personal computers include some of the most advanced chips; At the same time, it is expected that the data center full of computer servers will purchase more chips next year. "People are very eager to install everything on devices. Coupled with the continuous growth of cloud computing and cryptocurrency mining, we think chip demand will usher in a boom period," o'donell said

Last week, Patrick Armstrong, chief information officer of plurimi investment managers, said at CNBC's street signs Europe that he thought the chip shortage would last for 18 months. "This is not just about cars, but also about mobile phones and any products about the Internet. Now there are too many products with more chips than before, and they all have network functions."

But the automotive industry has been hit harder than other industries by the global chip shortage. Earlier this month, TSMC, the world's largest chipmaker, believed that it would be able to meet the needs of the automotive industry by June. However, Armstrong believes that this ambition is too big. "If you listen to the views of Ford, BMW and Volkswagen, they all emphasize that there is a capacity bottleneck and they are unable to obtain the chips needed to produce new cars."

On May 12, Gartner, a Gartner consulting firm, said that this chip shortage will run through 2021, adding that it affects all chip types and chip prices are rising.

On May 13, Alan Priestley, an analyst at Gartner, said that the chip supply in some industries may improve in the next six months, but it may have a "chain reaction" in 2022, but it won't be long. The industry is arranging more capacity, but it really takes time. Indeed, in March, Intel announced that it plans to allocate US $20 billion to build two new chip plants in Arizona, and may build a chip plant in Europe if it receives public funding. "It will take two to three years to complete, but it may really meet future needs," Priestley said

Meanwhile, last week, Reinhard Ploss, CEO of Infineon, a German chip manufacturer, said that the semiconductor industry is an irregular field, and it is clear that it will take time for supply and demand to balance again. "I think two years is too long, but the chip shortage will certainly continue until 2022. I think there will be more capacity in the future, and I expect the situation to be more balanced next year."

On May 5, Wenzhe Zhao, head of global economic cooperation strategy at Credit Suisse, said in a report that the recent chip shortage has prompted the chip production chain to hoard goods, widening the gap between rising demand and stagnant supply. Zhao said that the new semiconductor production capacity will go online in 2022 or later. In addition to adjusting the order volume, production plan and price, the industry can do nothing about the current shortage.